An era of cheap oil and dollar strength should prove a boon for a country that imports shiploads of commodities and wants exports to cushion a growth slowdown.
对一个进口大量大宗商品、并希望用出口缓冲经济增长放缓的国家，油价低廉和美元走强的时代本来应该是一大福音。That China, the world’s second-biggest economy and itself facing slower growth, is only a minor beneficiary illustrates the extent of Beijing’s foot-dragging on a 2013 pledge to hand Markets a “decisive” role in price-setting.
作为世界第二大经济体、而且自身正面临经济增长放缓的中国却受益甚少，这显示出，在履行2013年作出的让市场扮演定价“决定性”角色的承诺方面，中国政府没有取得多少进展。Take oil. China is the world’s biggest importer but price controls mean the 50 per cent slide in Brent prices since June shrinks to just half that level in China.
以石油为例。中国是全球最大的石油进口国，但由于实行价格管制，虽然自去年6月以来布伦特(Brent)原油价格下跌50%，但在中国，油价跌幅却缩小至只有25%。
Similarly on the currency: while China ditched the renminbi’s peg to the dollar nearly a decade ago, it continues to shadow the greenback. Last year it fell 2.4 per cent against the dollar. Though large by Chinese standards, the decline paled in comparison with the 12.1 per cent fall in the JPMorgan Emerging Markets Currency Index.
人民币同样如此：尽管中国在近十年前放弃了人民币盯住美元的汇率政策，但它继续与美元亦步亦趋。去年，人民币兑美元汇率下跌2.4%。尽管按中国人的标准来看，这种跌幅确实很大，但它和摩根大通新兴市场货币指数(JPMorgan Emerging Markets Currency Index)下跌12.1%相比则不值一提。Ma Guangyuan, a Beijing-based economist, says Chinese authorities know that “the dollar’s appreciation does more bad than good for emerging economies”, which is why they have not permitted the renminbi to fall too sharply.
北京经济学家马光远表示，中国当局知道，“美元升值对新兴经济体来说弊大于利”，这就是他们不允许人民币汇率急剧下跌的原因。Tom Miller at Gavekal Dragonomics, a Beijing-based consultancy, believes Beijing has learnt that its needs are best served by a strong currency, which reduces the price of its commodities imports, gives consumers more bang for their buck and forces low-end exporters up the value chain.
北京咨询公司龙洲经讯(Gavekal Dragonomics)的汤姆•米勒(Tom Miller)认为，北京方面已经明白，强势人民币最能满足中国的需要——它降低了大宗商品进口价格，让消费者手中的钱买到更多实惠，并迫使低端出口商向价值链上方攀爬。However, “it [also] serves grander geopolitical ambitions”, he says. “China’s vision of itself as a great power in Asia requires it to maintain an anchor currency that can be relied upon to retain its store of value and provide stability amid a sea of uncertainty.”
然而，米勒表示：“它（也）有利于更为宏大的地缘政治抱负。中国有意成为亚洲地区的大国，这需要它保持一种“货币锚”(currency anchor)属性，作为一种可信赖并维持价值储藏功能的货币，在众多不确定性当中提供稳定性。”The strong dollar will add to pressure on the People’s Bank of China to ease monetary policy in an attempt to counteract the impact of capital outflows.
美元走强将加大压力，促使中国人民银行(PBOC)放松货币政策以抵消资本外流的影响。Though modest, currency depreciation has quashed longstanding expectations that the renminbi was a one-way bet and deterred speculative inflows from investors hoping to earn risk-free profits.
人民币贬值幅度虽然不大，但已经消除了长期以来对人民币是一种单边押注的预期，并阻止了希望获得无风险利润的投资者的投机性资本流入。Expectations of interest rate rises by the US Federal Reserve, combined with a rate cut by China’s central bank, have also reduced the attractiveness of carry trades in which investors borrow dollars at low rates to invest in higher-yielding renminbi assets.
美联储(Fed)加息预期再加上中国央行降息，也降低了套息交易（以低利率借入美元，然后投资于高收益的人民币资产）的吸引力。China experienced two consecutive quarters of financial outflows in the second and third quarters of 2014, according to the latest balance of payments data, the first such streak since 2012.
中国最新发布的国际收支数据显示，中国在2014年第二季度和第三季度连续两个季度出现资本外流，这是自2012年以来首次出现这种情况。To counteract the monetary contraction caused by capital outflows, analysts expect at least two cuts in the required reserve ratio (RRR) for banks this year, which will help replenish the supply of base money lost to capital outflow.
分析师们预计，为了抵消资本外流导致的货币紧缩效果，中国今年至少会两次下调银行存款准备金率，这将有助于补充因资本外流而损失的基础货币供应。“The PBoC is expected to adopt an easing bias to keep monetary policy ‘appropriate’ — including using various liquidity facilities and RRR cuts to offset drainage from FX outflows,” wrote Wang Tao, China economist at UBS, in a note this week.
瑞银(UBS)中国经济学家汪涛在本周发布的一份研究报告中表示：“预计中国人民银行将会倾向于宽松政策以保持货币政策‘适当’，包括使用不同的流动性工具和降低存款准备金率以抵消外汇资金外流的影响。”Lower inflation because of falling oil prices will allow authorities more space to ease policy. On trade, the stronger dollar should provide a modest boost to Chinese exports this year, at a time when a slowdown in investment is dragging on growth.
因油价下跌导致的通胀下降将让有关当局有更多空间实施宽松政策。就贸易而言，在投资放缓拖累经济增长之际，美元升值今年应该会温和提振中国出口。“The strong dollar may lead to further moderate depreciation in 2015. That’s going to help the economy export its excess manufacturing output from overcapacity industries,” says Hong Hao, managing director for research at Bocom International Holdings, the international brokerage arm of Bank of Communications, China’s fifth-largest lender.
交银国际控股(Bocom International Holdings)负责研究部门的董事总经理洪灏表示：“美元强势可能导致人民币在2015年进一步小幅贬值。这将有助于中国出口产能过剩行业的多余制造业产出。”交银国际是中国第五大银行交通银行(Bank of Communications)旗下的国际经纪部门。China customs data yesterday showed the largest annual merchandise trade surplus on record in 2014, with the three largest monthly surpluses on record all coming since August.
中国海关昨日发布的数据显示，2014年年度贸易顺差创出有记录以来的最高水平，3个月度贸易顺差最高的月份全都出自去年8月以来。China’s current account surplus — the broadest measure of trade in goods and services — fell for four of the five years from 2009 to 2013, exerting a drag on overall gross domestic product growth.
在从2009年到2013年的5年时间里，中国经常账户盈余有4年出现下降，拖累了整个国内生产总值(GDP)的增长。经常账户是衡量商品和服务贸易的最广泛的指标。But the surplus rose 10 per cent in the first three quarters of 2014 from a year earlier, and full-year GDP figures out this month are almost certain to show a positive contribution to growth from net exports — a trend economists expect to accelerate this year.
但2014年前3个季度的经常账户盈余同比增长10%，而且几乎可以肯定的是，本月发布的2014年全年GDP数据将会显示出净出口对增长的积极贡献——经济学家预计今年这种趋势还会加强。