美联储为年内加息埋下伏笔

英语社 人气:1.62W

美联储为年内加息埋下伏笔

The Federal Reserve yesterday held open the prospect of a second increase in interest rates later this year as it said that near-term risks to the US economy had diminished and the job Market recovery had regained momentum.

美联储(Federal Reserve)昨日为今年晚些时候第二次加息埋下伏笔,称美国经济面临的短期风险已经大幅减小,就业市场复苏已经重拾势头。

The Federal Open Market Committee kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 0.25 per cent to 0.5 per cent at the end of its latest two-day meeting, leaving the rate where it has been since the Fed lifted it by a quarter point from near-zero levels in December.

联邦公开市场委员会(FOMC)在最新的两天会议结束之际,宣布将联邦基金利率维持在0.25%至0.5%的目标区间不变,这意味着利率将继续处于美联储去年12月从接近零的水平上调25个基点之后的水平。

It has three scheduled meetings left this year in which it could move rates — in September, November and December and its words left open the chance that it could act as soon as September. Complicating its deliberations is the uncertainty of the US presidential election outcome in November, which could weigh on business confidence.

美国央行今年还有三次计划中的会议可以调整利率,分别在9月、11月和12月。其措辞暗示最早可能在9月开会时就决定加息。使美联储的斟酌复杂化的一个因素,是围绕11月美国总统大选结果的不确定性,这一不确定性可能拖累商业信心。

The US central bank signalled that some of the worries that hung over its meeting in June have since abated, notably the prospect of a severe blow to global markets stemming from the UK’s referendum vote to leave the EU.

美国央行发出信号表示,笼罩在其6月会议上方的一些忧虑已经消退,尤其是英国公投决定退欧严重冲击全球市场的前景。

While it did not explicitly refer to the Brexit vote, the committee said: “Near-term risks to the economic outlook have diminished.”

尽管FOMC没有明确提及英国退欧的公投结果,但该委员会称:“经济前景的短期风险已经大幅减小。”

Rob Carnell, chief international economist at ING, said: “Judging by the text of the accompanying statement to the Fed decision, it looks as if they are trying to prepare markets for a hike far sooner than markets have been expecting.”

荷兰国际集团(ING)的首席国际经济学家罗布•卡内尔(Rob Carnell)表示:“从美联储决定附带的声明措辞看,似乎他们正试图让市场做好准备,迎接比市场近来预期早得多的加息。”

However, the Fed also maintained that it remained on guard for renewed turbulence in markets or world economies, suggesting it would continue to tread carefully before considering a second rate rise. “The committee continues to closely monitor inflation indicators and global economic and financial developments,” it said in a statement.

不过,美联储也继续表示,它仍然对市场或世界经济再起动荡保持警惕,似乎表明它在考虑第二次加息之前仍将谨慎行事。“委员会将继续密切监测通胀指标以及全球经济和金融动态,”它在一份声明中表示。

The Fed last month pared back its interest-rate forecasts as it assessed foreign hazards including the prospect of a UK EU exit vote, as well as subdued US jobs numbers. Since then markets have rebounded, reducing some of the concerns about the knock-on effects of the Brexit vote outside Europe.

美联储上月曾下调其利率预测,当时它在评估各项境外危险(包括英国公投退欧的可能性),以及美国的疲弱就业数据。自那以来市场已经反弹,降低了一些有关英国退欧的连锁反应扩散到欧洲以外的担忧。

The International Monetary Fund this month trimmed its world growth forecasts because the Brexit vote has caused a “substantial” increase in economic, political and institutional uncertainty. But the fund left its forecast for US growth next year unchanged at 2.5 per cent while paring its 2016 outlook.

国际货币基金组织(IMF)本月下调了全球经济增长预测,理由是英国公投退欧已导致经济、政治和机构不确定性“大幅”上升。但该组织在调降美国2016年增长预测的同时,保持2017年美国增长预测不变,仍为2.5%。

A sharp slowdown in payroll growth heavily influenced the Fed’s June meeting, but since then there has been a bounceback in hiring, with payrolls growing by 287,000 in June, at least 100,000 more than had been forecast by analysts.

就业人数增长剧烈放缓曾严重影响美联储6月会议,但自那以来企业雇用人数出现反弹,6月份新增就业人数28.7万,比分析师们的预测至少高出10万。

In its statement yesterday, the Fed also highlighted strong growth in household spending — the key driver of the US economic recovery. Esther George, the hawkish president of the Kansas City Fed, renewed her call for an immediate rate increase, but the rest of the FOMC voted for rates to remain unchanged.

美联储在昨日声明中还强调了家庭支出(美国经济复苏的主要驱动力)的强劲增长。堪萨斯城联邦储备银行(Kansas City Fed)的鹰派行长埃丝特•乔治(Esther George)再度呼吁立即加息,但FOMC的其余成员投票赞成维持利率不变。