Donald J. Trump’s behavior in recent days — the political threats to the House speaker, Paul D. Ryan; the name-calling on Twitter; the attacks on Hillary Clinton’s marriage — has deeply puzzled Republicans who expected him to move to unite the party, start acting presidential and begin courting the female voters he will need in the general election.
唐纳德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)最近几天的行为——对众议院议长保罗·D·瑞安(Paul D. Ryan)发出政治威胁、在Twitter上骂人、攻击希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的婚姻——让一些共和党人深感困惑。他们本希望特朗普行动起来，团结全党，开始让自己的行事有总统的样子，并着手争取他在大选中所需要的女性选民的支持。
But Mr. Trump’s choices reflect an unusual conviction: He said he had a “mandate” from his supporters to run as a fiery populist outsider and to rely on his raucous rallies to build support through “word of mouth,” rather than to embrace a traditional, mellower and more inclusive approach that congressional Republicans will advocate in meetings with him on Thursday.
但特朗普的选择反映出了一个与众不同的信念：他称自己得到了支持者的“授权”，要以一个激情四射的民粹主义局外人的身份竞选，并依靠喧闹嘈杂的集会，通过“口口相传”的方式来寻求支持，而不是采取更老练、更全面的传统方式。国会的共和党人将在周四与他举行会面时倡导后一种方式。
Mr. Trump’s strategy is replete with risks. Roughly 60 percent of Americans view him negatively, according to pollsters, who say more-of-the-same Trump is not likely to improve those numbers. While a majority of Republican primary voters said they were looking for a political outsider, Mr. Trump will face a majority of voters in November who prefer a candidate with political experience, according to primary exit polls and several national polls. Many Republicans think they will lose the presidency and seats in the House and Senate if he continues using language that offends women and some racial and religious groups.
特朗普的战略充满风险。民调显示，约60%的美国人对特朗普持负面评价，并称不作出重大改变的特朗普不太可能改善这些数据。尽管大部分共和党初选选民称他们期待出现一个政治局外人，但初选出口民调和几次全国性民调显示，特朗普11月面对的选民中，大多数更喜欢有政治经验的候选人。很多共和党人认为，如果特朗普继续使用会冒犯女性及一些种族和宗教团体的语言，他们将失去总统的宝座和参众两院的席位。
Still, Mr. Trump’s message, tone and policy ideas have drawn followers who are more passionate than Republican nominees typically enjoy, and he has monopolized the political conversation and news coverage of the race. Some Republicans argue that he cannot afford to change his stripes too much, while strategists in both parties say he is shrewdly sticking with a style that drowns out attacks that could deepen his negative rating.
但特朗普的观点、口吻和政策理念依然吸引了一些追随者。他们比典型的支持共和党提名人选的选民更热情，并且特朗普垄断了有关政治的谈话和新闻媒体对选举的报道。一些共和党人称特朗普不能改变太多，而两党的策略师则称他是在精明地坚持一种风格，这种风格会把可能加深对其负面评价的攻击淹没。
“His rally rants and Twitter brawls are meant to dominate the media coverage and public conversation so that Democratic challenges have less space to break through all of the noise,” said Guy Cecil, the chief strategist and co-chairman of Priorities USA, the “super PAC” supporting Mrs. Clinton. “He doesn’t want people talking about his record or positions.”
“他在集会上的咆哮和在Twitter上的争吵是为了主导媒体报道和公众谈话，这样一来民主党的挑战就没有太多余地去突破所有这些噪音，”支持克林顿的超级政治行动委员会“优先美国”(Priorities USA)的首席策略师、联合主席盖伊·塞西尔(Guy Cecil)说。“他不想让人们讨论他的履历或职务。”
Mr. Trump, in a telephone interview, compared his candidacy to hit Broadway shows and championship baseball teams, saying that success begot success and that he would be foolish to change his behavior now.
接受电话采访时，特朗普将自己的候选人身份比作热门的百老汇演出和夺冠的棒球队，称成功是成功之母，并表示现在改变行为举止是愚蠢的。
“You win the pennant and now you’re in the World Series — you gonna change?” Mr. Trump said. “People like the way I’m doing.”
“在联盟内获胜了，现在要参加世界大赛，这时候改变？”特朗普说。“人们喜欢我现在的方式。”
He argued that he stood a better chance of inspiring voters in states like Ohio and Pennsylvania if he was his authentic self, rather than shifting from populist outsider to political insider to please a relative handful of Republican elites who are part of the establishment he has railed against for months. He said his huge rallies, where outbursts of violence and racist taunts have vexed many Republican leaders, and his attacks against adversaries on Twitter and in television interviews would continue because he believes Americans admire his aggressive, take-charge style.
他说，只要坚持做真实的自己，而不是从一个民粹主义外行变成一个政治内行，以取悦相对而言属于少数的共和党精英，他就有更大的机会去争取俄亥俄和宾夕法尼亚等州选民。共和党精英正是他数月来所抨击的建制派的一部分。他说他会继续举办大型集会，继续在Twitter上和电视采访中攻击对手，因为他相信美国人欣赏他这种好斗、发号施令的风格。支持特朗普的集会上爆发的暴力行为和种族歧视的奚落言语，使很多共和党领袖大为恼火。
“I think I have a mandate from the people,” Mr. Trump continued, referring to his victories in 29 states, including Nebraska and West Virginia on Tuesday night. “The people are tired of incompetent leadership at the highest level. They’re tired of trade deals that are ripping our jobs apart and taking their wages.”
“我认为我得到了人民的授权，”特朗普继续说。他指的是他在29个州取得的胜利，包括周二晚上在内布拉斯加和西弗吉尼亚州的获胜。“人们厌倦了最高领导人的无能。他们厌倦了就业机会被破坏，厌倦了掠夺他们的工资的贸易协议。”
Mandates are usually claimed after a presidential candidate wins a general election, not a party nomination, but part of Mr. Trump’s style and strategy is to project a supreme confidence in himself and his popularity with voters. Several Republicans said they put little stock in his claim, arguing that he had won support from only a fraction of the electorate and had yet to prove he was worthy of leading the entire Republican Party, not just his fractious and highly visible wing.
总统候选人通常是在赢得大选，而不是党内提名后称自己获得了授权，但特朗普的风格和战略的一部分就是展现对他自己，以及选民对他的支持的超级自信。多名共和党人表示他们几乎不信特朗普的话，称他只是赢得了全体选民中的一小部分人的支持，尚需证明他适合领导整个共和党，而不只是他所在的那个脾气暴躁且爱出风头的派系。
“Donald Trump did earn a mandate from Republican primary voters,” said Senator Patrick J. Toomey, a Republican facing a tough re-election fight in Pennsylvania, whose primary Mr. Trump won with 57 percent of the vote. “My advice to him is that he should now consider how he will appeal to the many Republican and non-Republican voters who have serious concerns about his candidacy.”
“唐纳德·特朗普的确从共和党初选选民那里赢得了授权，”面临着激烈的连任竞选大战的宾夕法尼亚州共和党参议员帕特里克·J·图米(Patrick J. Toomey)说。“我对他的建议是，他现在应该考虑如何吸引对他的候选人身份严重关切的很多共和党和非共和党选民。”在该州的初选中，特朗普赢得了57%的选票。
Former Senator Judd Gregg of New Hampshire said that electoral mandates were a fallacy in American politics, and that leaders only did well when they focused on “ideas in the center that unite people.”
前新罕布什尔州参议员贾德·格雷格(Judd Gregg)称，选民的授权是美国政治中的一个谬论，领导人只有在把重点放在“把人们团结起来的核心理念”上时，才会有好的表现。
“I don’t even think the 1980 Reagan landslide gave Reagan a mandate,” said Mr. Gregg, whose state gave Mr. Trump his first win in the primaries, and who has not decided if he will follow through on his pledge to support the Republican nominee. “He was effective because the country was in terrible shape and he was able to bring large numbers of people behind his ideas. Trump hasn’t done that.”
“我甚至认为里根1980年的压倒性胜利都没让他得到授权，”尚未决定是否兑现支持共和党提名人选承诺的格雷格说。在他所在的州，特朗普赢得了初选中的首场胜利。“他取得了成效是因为当时国家是一个烂摊子，他能够让大量民众支持自己的观点。特朗普还没做到这一点。”
But Patrick J. Buchanan, the conservative commentator and past presidential candidate, said Mr. Trump was rallying historic numbers of voters with a mix of conservative ideas and anti-establishment populism that evoked, among other politicians, Ross Perot and his magnetic appeal in the 1992 campaign. Mr. Perot lost, of course, but Mr. Buchanan said that Mr. Trump might stand a better chance.
但曾经竞选过总统的保守派评论人士帕特里克·J·布坎南(Patrick J. Buchanan)表示，特朗普正在用保守思想和反正统民粹主义的结合，团结一群规模空前庞大的选民。这种反正统民粹主义让人想起了罗斯·佩罗(Ross Perot)等政界人物，以及佩罗在1992年竞选总统时的魅力。当然佩罗失败了，但布坎南称特朗普的机会可能更大一些。
“With the largest Republican turnout ever, Trump eliminated 16 rivals and is on track to winning more votes than any Republican nominee in history,” he said. “That gives him a mandate to lead the Republican Party and move ahead with his plans to secure the border, pull back from foreign interventions and wars, and end these terrible trade deals.”
“在共和党投票人数达到有史以来的最高水平的情况下，特朗普淘汰了16名竞争对手，并且有望成为史上获得选票最多的共和党提名人，”他说。“这授权他领导共和党，并推进保护边境、从境外干预和战争中抽身，以及结束这些糟糕的贸易协议的计划。”
In Mr. Trump’s view, the rallies and the Twitter wars — even when he is punching down against a little-known evangelical leader (Russell Moore of the Southern Baptist Convention) and a cable talk show host (Joe Scarborough of MSNBC), as he did recently — are crowd-pleasers, creating buzz that is critical to dominating the political landscape and overshadowing Mrs. Clinton’s message and attacks. Last week, he kept his commitments for rallies in Nebraska, Oregon and Washington State, even though he already had a lock on the nomination.
在特朗普看来，集会和Twitter上的战火——即便是在他像前不久所做的那样，攻击一名鲜为人知的基督教福音派领袖（美南浸信会[Southern Baptist Convention]的罗素·摩尔[Russell Moore]）和一个有线频道脱口秀节目主持人（MSNBC的乔·斯卡伯勒[Joe Scarborough]）时——都是取悦民众的行为，能够制造轰动，而这这种轰动，对主导政治形势和让克林顿的言论及攻击黯然失色是至关重要的。上周，他履行了在内布拉斯加、俄勒冈和华盛顿州举行集会的诺言，尽管他已牢牢锁定了提名。
“In a Broadway theater, the best, the best, absolute best sale is called ‘word of mouth,’ ” said Mr. Trump, who once dabbled in theater producing. “If people love a Broadway show, it’s better than if you write a good review. Word of mouth is the No. 1 thing. And the word of mouth at my rallies is like, ‘You’ve got to go see it.’ And, you know, one person goes and they talk about it to 20 people.”
“在百老汇剧院里，最最好，绝对是最好的销售技巧叫‘口口相传’，”曾涉足戏剧制作的特朗普说。“要是人们喜欢百老汇的一出戏，这比写一篇优秀的剧评管用。口口相传是第一位的。而我的集会上的口口相传就是，‘你一定要去看看啊。’而且你知道的，一个人去了，他们就会告诉20个人。”